Martin Wattenberg, [professor of political science] at the University of California, Irvine, argued by email that generational change will be a key factor in the election. Between 2020 and 2024, “about 13 million adult citizens will have died” and “these lost voters favored Trump in 2020 by a substantial margin.”  … Wattenberg estimated that 15 million young people will become eligible to vote between 2020 and 2024. “How many of them will vote and how they will vote is a key uncertainty that could determine the election,” he wrote. “Given recent patterns, there is little doubt that those that vote will favor the Democratic nominee. But by how much?”

For the full story, please visit https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/27/opinion/trump-biden-election-2024.html.