Marty Wattenberg

Martin Wattenberg, [professor of political science] at the University of California, Irvine, argued by email that generational change will be a key factor in the election. Between 2020 and 2024, “about 13 million adult citizens will have died” and “these lost voters favored Trump in 2020 by a substantial margin.”  … Wattenberg estimated that 15 million young people will become eligible to vote between 2020 and 2024. “How many of them will vote and how they will vote is a key uncertainty that could determine the election,” he wrote. “Given recent patterns, there is little doubt that those that vote will favor the Democratic nominee. But by how much?”

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