Words are powerful. For the US economy, no-one’s more so than those of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. … How big was the impact? Building on a model developed by Michael Bauer and Eric Swanson – respectively economists at the San Francisco Fed and University of California, Irvine – we find it was the biggest monetary policy shock of the current cycle. The stimulus impulse was bigger even than that of Powell’s dovish words following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023.

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