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In 2022, the Taliban announced plans for the eradication of the cultivation, processing, and sale of opium poppy and its products. The ban was effectively enforced throughout Afghanistan, eliminating a previously dominant source of revenue for farmers, and creating unique circumstances relative to other, less-complete crop eradication programs. Theoretically, the impact of poppy eradication on conflict is ambiguous: in a classical conflict framework a contest effect, the high value of poppy production, would increase conflict while an opportunity cost effect, the relative value of alternative income methods, would decrease conflict, with one effect dominating. However, complete enforcement of the ban adds an additional layer of forces in this circumstance. Poppy is uniquely valuable, but also uniquely labor intensive, relative to other crops. Farmers therefore face both a negative income shock and a positive time shock. To test how this impacts conflict we compare the quantity and nature of conflict after the ban to the period under Taliban rule before the ban took effect. Descriptively, we find a large and persistent decrease in both conflict events and conflict fatalities after the poppy ban, regardless of the amount of poppy cultivated in the area pre-ban. We ascribe this change to opposition forces like the National Resistance Front (NRF) using proceeds from poppy to fund their operations throughout the country; while support for the NRF has been growing and proliferating throughout Afghanistan, the ban decreased the level of material financial support for the NRF as farmers face worse economic conditions.

Light lunch provided.

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