The UN recently issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries for the first time, using a Bayesian hierarchical framework developed by our University of Washington group. These take account of uncertainty about future fertility and mortality, but not international migration. Raftery proposes a Bayesian hierarchical autoregressive model for projecting migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Raftery resolve a paradoxical discrepancy between growth trends in the proportion of the world population migrating and the average absolute migration rate across countries.
Adrian Raftery is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, an Honorary Member of the Royal Irish Academy,  a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, and an elected Member of the Sociological Research Association.

connect with us


© UC Irvine School of Social Sciences - 3151 Social Sciences Plaza, Irvine, CA 92697-5100 - 949.824.2766