The UN recently issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries for the first time, using a Bayesian hierarchical framework developed by our University of Washington group. These take account of uncertainty about future fertility and mortality, but not international migration. Raftery proposes a Bayesian hierarchical autoregressive model for projecting migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Raftery resolve a paradoxical discrepancy between growth trends in the proportion of the world population migrating and the average absolute migration rate across countries.
 
Adrian Raftery is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, an Honorary Member of the Royal Irish Academy,  a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, and an elected Member of the Sociological Research Association.

 

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