China today already has some of the highest debt-GDP ratios in the world and the single highest ratio for all emerging market countries. What does this high debt level mean for the economy and the cash flow demands for corporations and individuals? China has implemented policies to slow down the pace of leveraging, but will it make a difference? Finally, what mechanisms may make it increasingly difficult for the PBOC to continue China's credit bubble?
Victor Shih, a scholar of political economy of China, holds a Ph.D. in government from Harvard University and resides at UC San Diego as an Associate Professor of Political Science. He has published widely on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies and exchange rates, and was the first analyst to identify the risk of massive local government debt. He also worked as a principal for The Carlyle Group. Shih is currently engaged in a study of how the coalition-formation strategies of founding leaders had a profound impact on the evolution of the Chinese Communist Party. He is also constructing a large database on biographical information of elites in China.