The Department of Political Science Colloquium Series presents
"The Temporal Order of Perceived Group Threat and Radical Right-Wing Populist Party
Preference - An Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Approach"
with Carl C. Berning, Visiting Researcher, Center for the Study of Democracy, University of California, Irvine
Friday, November 8, 2013
Social Science Plaza A, Room 2112
Scholars agree upon the strong positive relationship between perceived group threat and preferences for a radical right-wing populist party. However, the temporal order of both concepts remains unclear. Berning extends previous research on perceived group threat as the major attitudinal predictor for radical right-wing populist party preferences by testing three alternative longitudinal models. The first conceptualization assumes that perceived group threat precede radical right-wing populist party preferences. A second strand conceptualizes radical right-wing populist party preferences to be temporally prior to perceived group threat. A third theoretical perspective suggests that both concepts are linked reciprocally. Berning tests these three competing longitudinal directions with recent panel data from the Netherlands for two radical right-wing populist parties. Using latent autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation modelling, Berning finds that perceived group threat is temporal precedence to radical right-wing populist party preferences. Berning finds no support for alternative theoretical perspectives.
*This study was co-authored with Elmar Schlüter, Professor of Sociology, Institute of Sociology, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Germany.
For further information, please contact Graeme Boushey, firstname.lastname@example.org.