The Department of Political Science Colloquium Series presents

"The Temporal Order of Perceived Group Threat and Radical Right-Wing Populist Party Preference - An Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Approach"
with Carl C. Berning, Visiting Researcher, Center for the Study of Democracy, University of California, Irvine

Friday, November 8, 2013
2:00-3:30 p.m.
Social Science Plaza A, Room 2112

Scholars agree upon the strong positive relationship between perceived group threat and preferences for a radical right-wing populist party. However, the temporal order of both concepts remains unclear. Berning extends previous research on perceived group threat as the major attitudinal predictor for radical right-wing populist party preferences by testing three alternative longitudinal models. The first conceptualization assumes that perceived group threat precede radical right-wing populist party preferences. A second strand conceptualizes radical right-wing populist party preferences to be temporally prior to perceived group threat. A third theoretical perspective suggests that both concepts are linked reciprocally. Berning tests these three competing longitudinal directions with recent panel data from the Netherlands for two radical right-wing populist parties. Using latent autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation modelling, Berning finds that perceived group threat is temporal precedence to radical right-wing populist party preferences. Berning finds no support for alternative theoretical perspectives.

*This study was co-authored with Elmar Schlüter, Professor of Sociology, Institute of Sociology, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Germany.

For further information, please contact Graeme Boushey,

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