In “Identity Crisis”, a book published in 2018 about voter psychology and behaviour in the 2016 election, three political scientists, John Sides, Michael Tesler, [UCI professor of political science] and Lynn Vavreck, find that the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment had predicted the approval ratings of presidents from Kennedy to George W. Bush pretty accurately. But under Barack Obama and Donald Trump, the correlation fell apart. An improvement in perceived economic conditions did not translate into a boost in ratings. Polarisation was the culprit. Consumer confidence improved under Mr Trump, but that was explained almost entirely by sentiment among Republicans, who were already predisposed to approve of his performance as president.

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