Farmers, construction supervisors and hotel managers may soon be scrambling to fill vacancies left by aging baby boomers, says UCI sociologist Frank Bean, but a U.S.-born labor force needed to replace them may not be there. The message was part of his briefing to members of Congress on April 3 in Washington, D.C.

“We knew back in the 70s that a decline was starting to happen among the less-skilled, younger U.S.-born population as baby boomers aged and more people began to pursue a higher education,” he says. “Over the past 40 years, that gap has widened, particularly from 1990-2010.”

Using statistics from the U.S. Census and American Community Survey, his research finds that while the U.S. working-age population has grown by 0.4 percent annually over the last 20 years, the number of U.S.-born, less-skilled individuals of working age – those with a high school diploma or less, ages 25-64 - actually shrunk 0.6 percent annually. The drop was even more notable among the younger segment of the working-age population, ages 25-44, which declined 2 percent annually.

“In real numbers, this means employers had roughly 7.3 million fewer less-skilled, U.S.-born potential workers to choose from in 2010 than they did in 1990. For the younger population, the decline reached 12.3 million,” he says.

Yet despite this decline, the number of less-skilled jobs in the economy remained constant at 45.7 million from 1990-2010.

So who filled the gap?

“Immigrants,” says Bean. “Foreign-born workers have played a critical role in keeping the U.S. economy afloat.”

Future estimates indicate that the U.S.-born labor gap will continue to grow in the coming years, making immigrant employment essential to U.S. economic growth, he says. Detailed findings can be reviewed in a study he co-authored with Susan Brown, sociology associate professor, UC Irvine, and James Bachmeier, assistant professor, Temple University. The study was published by the Partnership for New American Economy and supported an expansion of research Bean was already conducting on demographic change and immigrant employment.

“We’re reaching a critical point where we won’t have enough laborers to fill necessary jobs in our economy,” Bean says. “It’s time we took a hard look at immigration reform for a viable answer.”

The full report can be viewed online.

-Heather Ashbach, Social Sciences Communications