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Message from the director

The Center for Economics & Public Policy has just completed its second year. One of our central goals is to contribute to informed public debate about economics-related public policy issues at the national and state level. To this end, we seek to bring to the UCI community top scholars whose research explores fundamental public policy issues. In the fall, we hosted Dr. John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Dr. Williams gave a lecture on the various types of monetary policy tools the Federal Reserve Board has used to try to help the U.S. economy recover from the Great Recession. In the spring, we heard from Professor George Borjas, of Harvard University, who spoke about the evidence underlying economic arguments for and against immigration. Both lectures played to packed lecture halls, and were followed by engaging discussion over dinner with community members who are interested in the Center's activities.

In support of the same goal of bringing economic research to bear on key public policy issues, this fall we will host Professor Dana Goldman, from the University of Southern California. In anticipation of the many changes – and continuing debate – over the implementation of health care reform ("Obamacare"), Professor Goldman will speak on "Charting a Course for the Affordable Care Act: Lessons from Health Economics." (You can find more details at http://www.economicsandpublicpolicy.uci.edu/node/15993).

A second core goal of the Center for Economics & Public Policy is to encourage UCI faculty and students to engage in research related to economics and public policy. We have received a second gift from Steven Borowski '79 to support graduate and undergraduate student research on transportation policy. Student research has focused on significant questions such as the "rebound" effect in improving gas mileage in cars – whereby the gains in gasoline savings from better mileage can be offset by increased driving – and the effects of London's congestion tolls that charge residents to bring their cars into parts of Central London. We are actively seeking additional support for student research in other policy areas.

And perhaps most important are our efforts to help research by UCI faculty (and graduate students) inform public policy debate. We have launched a working paper series featuring policy-relevant research by UCI faculty. Each working paper has an extensive executive summary to help readers distill the main ideas easily. You can find the papers posted so far at http://www.economicsandpublicpolicy.uci.edu/epp_workingpapers, and there are many more to come. UCI faculty also provide important perspective on policy debate in the media, based on their research. You can find commentary by me on recent debate over the minimum wage at http://www.economicsandpublicpolicy.uci.edu/node/16330, and commentary from Professor Jan Brueckner on proposed airline mergers at http://www.economicsandpublicpolicy.uci.edu/node/16455.

In pursuit of the same goal, we are also beginning to experiment with another model, by organizing a "salon" at which UCI faculty will discuss their research on an important policy question in an informal, intimate setting with community members who will have plenty of opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion. Our first salon will be in the evening on Monday, September 30, with UCI Professor David Brownstone discussing high-speed rail in California.

This newsletter is intended to help communicate findings from UCI research on economics and public policy to the policy community. In addition to the links given above, I encourage you to browse through the CEPP website (http://www.economicsandpublicpolicy.uci.edu/), and to come to our lectures and other events. Below, you will also find numerous links to newspaper stories and other descriptions of policy-relevant research by these same faculty, as well as op-eds and policy memos by faculty affiliates:

• Studies
• Working Papers
• Op-eds
• Video

STUDIES

Breaking down the fiscal cliff

UCI macroeconomist explains its causes and consequences, should we go over

Tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect January 1 would likely push the U.S. economy back into recession, says UCI economics associate professor Bill Branch. An expert in macroeconomics, he explains the looming fiscal cliff – a term coined by Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben Bernanke – as the result of shifting demographic trends, tax cuts and defense spending that increased the federal debt at a time when tax revenues were on a recession-fueled decline. Below, Branch explains in detail what fiscal tightening measures would mean for the average American and what it will take from a polarized Congress to ensure a fall off the cliff is avoided.

Expert help to reduce child poverty in New Zealand

Greg Duncan, Distinguished Professor, heads to New Zealand

Courtesy of Victoria University, New Zealand: Childhood poverty in New Zealand will be under the spotlight over the next few weeks with the arrival at Victoria University of an American academic who has spent three decades researching the issue. Distinguished Professor Greg Duncan, from the University of California, Irvine, has published extensively on issues of income distribution, child poverty and welfare dependency. His recent research focuses on understanding the importance of the skills and behaviours developed during childhood, and how they affect children's eventual success later in life.

WORKING PAPERS

• Partial Fiscal Decentralization and Public-Sector Heterogeneity: Theory and Evidence from Norway
  Lars-Erik Borge, Norwegian University of Science and Technology | Jan K. Brueckner, University of California, Irvine | Jorn Rattsø, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
• Investing in Preschool Programs
  Greg J. Duncan, UC Irvine | Katherine Magnuson, University of Wisconsin - Madison
• Revisiting the Minimum Wage-Employment Debate: Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater?
  David Neumark, UCI, NBER, and IZA | J.M. Ian Salas, UCI | William Wascher, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
• Paper or Plastic? Money and Credit as Means of Payment
  Sebastien Lotz, LEMMA, University of Paris 2 | Cathy Zhang, University of California, Irvine

OP-EDS

• Minimum wage increases will lead to lost jobs (Op-ed)
  David Neumark, Economics San Diego Union Tribune

VIDEO

VIDEO: Expert on airline mergers

Economics professor Jan Brueckner weighs in on potential American Airlines-US Airways merger

What does the potential American Airlines-US Airways merger mean for passengers? Jan Brueckner, UC Irvine economics professor and transportation economics expert, weighs in.