FABIO MILANI - Research

Recent Working Papers

"Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle",
CEPR Discussion Paper #7743, February 2010.

"The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises" ",(with John Treadwell)
University of California, Irvine, July 2009. (Revised May 2011)

"The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation",
University of California, Irvine, April 2009.

"Learning About the Interdependence Between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market",
University of California, Irvine, May 2008.

"Learning and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Volatility", (under revision)
University of California, Irvine, May 2007.

"Learning and the Evolution of the Fed's Inflation Target"
University of California, Irvine, July 2009.

"Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence",
Princeton University, June 2004. This version: February 2005.

Publications

"Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle",
Economic Journal, Vol. 121, Iss. 552, pages 379-401, 2011.

"The Impact of Foreign Stock Markets on Macroeconomic Dynamics in Open Economies: a Structural Estimation",
Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 111-129, 2011.

"Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?",
forthcoming, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

"Global Slack and Domestic Inflation Rates: A Structural Investigation for G-7 Countries",
Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 32, Issue 4, pp. 968-981, December 2010.

"Public Option and Private Profits: What do Markets Expect?",
Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Volume 8, Number 3, pp. 155-165, May 2010.

"Expectations, Learning, and the Changing Relationship between Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy",
Energy Economics, Volume 31, Issue 6, November 2009, pages 827-837.

"Has Global Slack Become More Important than Domestic Slack in Determining U.S. Inflation?",
Economics Letters, Volume 102, Issue 3, March 2009, pages 147-151.

"Political Business Cycles in the New Keynesian Model",
Economic Inquiry, Volume 48, Issue 4, pages 896-915, October 2010.

"Adaptive Learning and Macroeconomic Inertia in the Euro Area",
Journal of Common Market Studies, Volume 47, Issue 3, Pages 579-599, June 2009.

"Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability",
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 32, No. 10, October 2008, pages 3148-3165.

"Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach",
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 55, No. 1, February, 2008.

"Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence",
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 54, Issue 7, Pages 2065-2082, October 2007.

"Econometric Issues in DSGE Models", (with Dale Poirier)
Comment on "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models" by An and Schorfheide ,
Econometric Reviews, Volume 26, Issue 2 - 4, March 2007, pages 201 - 204.

"A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?",
International Journal of Central Banking, Iss. 6, September 2006.

"Structural Factor-Augmented VARs (SFAVARs) and the Effects of Monetary Policy",
(with Francesco Belviso), Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 6, Iss. 3, 2006.

"Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy",
(with Carlo A. Favero), Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5, Iss. 1, 2005.

Comments & Discussions

Discussion on "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model",
by M. Adolfson, S. Laséen, J. Lindé, and M. Villani, August 2006.

Discussion on "The Lucas Critique and the Stability of Empirical Models",
by Thomas Lubik and Paolo Surico, October 2006.

Discussion on "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting",
by Lars Svensson and Noah Williams, January 2007.

Discussion on "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: the Value of Publishing Central Bank's Forecasts",
by Glenn Rudebusch and John Williams, June 2007.