Turning
research into action for a safer world
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PeaceWorks
President and Founder Daniel Lubetzky presents a selection
of PeaceWorks' unique and delicious gourmet products.
PeaceWorks has created an innovative model that utilizes
business as a driving force for bringing together
divided rivals in
viable enterprises, while simultaneously laying the practical
groundwork for reconciliation.
See www.peaceworks.com for
details.
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PEACE MONITOR
There
are various measures of peace, please select one of the following
for more details.
Countries
US
States
Major
US Metropolitan Areas
Large
US Cities
Selected
California Cities
Battle-Related Deaths
Billion
Dollar Club of Defense Spending
Nations
with Nuclear Weapons
Armed Conflicts Around the World
|
Selected Countries
The best
source of information we can find on comparative violence
levels
across countries is from the World Health
Organization (WHO) Mortality Statistics. The agency collects
data on causes of death from 77 countries and regions.
Among the more than 100 causes listed, three are pertinent
to our study: "Homicide and injury purposely inflicted
by other persons," "Other violence," and "Other
external causes." We add these three numbers together
and combine them with the WHO Estimated Mortality Coverage
(Table 4) data to produce the "Deaths by Violence" statistics
reported below.
Following the rankings/data listed below, we provide more
details about measuring violence levels including the limitations
of our approach, the validity of our measure, its correlates,
and suggestions for future improvements. Please contact
John Graham (jgraham@uci.edu or 949-824-8468) if you have
questions.
| Rank |
Country |
Violent Deaths (per 100,000) |
|
Rank |
Country |
Violent Deaths (per 100,000) |
1
2
2
4
4
6
6
8
9
10
11
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
19
21
22
23
24
25
26
26
28
29
29
31
32
32
34
35
36
37
38
38 |
Norway
Greece
Spain
Austria
Netherlands
Japan
New Zealand
Australia
Luxembourg
Ireland
Iceland
Malta
Canada
Italy
Mauritus
U.K. Northern Ireland
Macedonia
Kuwait
France
Germany
Hungary
U.K. England, Wales
Belgium
Croatia
San Marino
Sweden
U.K. (total)
Tajikistan
Finland
Romania
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Denmark
South Korea
Bulgaria
Uruguay
Albania
Slovenia
Switzerland
|
1
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.7
2
2
2.1
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.9
3.9
4
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.5
5.5
5.8
5.9
6.1
6.2
7.1
7.1
|
|
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
47
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
|
U.K. Scotland
Cuba
United States
Poland
Israel
Costa Rica
Singapore
Azerbaijan
Uzbekistan
Thailand
Turkmenistan
Peru
Mexico
Panama
Armenia
Portugal
Argentina
Nicaragua
Lithuania
Paraguay
Chile
Kyrgyzstan
Georgia
Latvia
Belize
Estonia
Republic of Moldova
Belarus
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Brazil
Venezuela
El Salvador
Philippines
Russian Federation**
Columbia
|
7.3
7.6
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.8
9.2
9.2
10.2
10.4
12.9
13.3
13.8
15.2
15.6
16.8
18.5
19.1
19.3
19.6
22.1
22.5
23.4
23.5
25.3
25.4
31.3
32.8
33.2
36.1
36.5
36.7
44.9
50.8
58.1
76.8
77.1
|
| |
|
|
|
|
** Chechnya not included |
Limitations.
The WHO Mortality Statistics include data from only 77
of
some 200 countries around the world.
The data are collected from hospitals and compiled by
government entities. So, the majority of countries, e.g.,
populous countries such as India, Indonesia, and China
are not included in the data - those countries do not
systematically collect this information and/or do not
choose to report it to the WHO. Please go to www3.who.int/whosis/menu.cfm
for more details and descriptions of the data - click
on "Causes of Death" and then "Table 1" for
the data details.
The most
recent year for which "Causes of Death" are
reported to the WHO depends on the country. For example,
Argentina's latest reported estimate is for 1997 statistics
while the United States currently reports year 2000 data.
In all cases, the data ranges from 1997 to 2000 so we are
looking back in time at violence levels. And we know that
in the United States, for example, homicide rates have
declined substantially between 1997 and 2001, 7.3(/100,000)
to about 5.5. These data do not include the deaths resulting
from the September 11th events in 2001. However, the data
used for ranking the 66 countries are collected contemporaneously,
so the comparisons are appropriate in that respect. And,
these are the best data we can find for our purposes.
We appreciate
that arguments can be made to include other categories
of
violence including rape, suicide, torture,
permanent injury, or even automobile accidents. However,
we feel our approach appropriately focuses on "violence" as
it can best be measured.
We are very interested in any and all suggestions for
improvements - please contact John Graham at jgraham@uci.edu.
All your comments and criticisms are most welcome. Our
goal is to improve our methods for the 2004 Peace Monitor
that will be published in March of that year and annually
thereafter.
Validity.
We checked the WHO data against two other sources of
data for the
United States - the Center for Disease
Control (CDC at webapp.cdc.gov) and the Federal Bureau
of Investigation (FBI at www.fbi.gov). For the year 1997
the numbers of homicides reported (one aspect of our "Deaths
by Violence" scores) for the three agencies are roughly
comparable: WHO - 19,491; CDC - 19,846; and FBI - 18,210.
Or, on a per 100,000 basis the numbers are: WHO - 7.3;
CDC - 7.4; and FBI - 6.8. The FBI count is lower because
they are taken from crime reports data while both the CDC
and the WHO gather data from medical records. The FBI Uniform
Crime Reporting measure of homicide is narrower than the
CDC and WHO. For example, felons killed by police officers
in the line of duty are not included in the FBI numbers.
In any case, the FBI statistic is within 10% of the highest
CDC statistic, and the WHO number falls nicely between
the other two. When we make these same comparisons for
1995 and 1996 we see the same relationships.
Correlates. Perusal of the Peace Monitor scores begs the
question of why the variation across countries. Indeed,
our hope is that these rankings will prove useful in the
study of the causes and consequences of violence and peace.
We have
taken a quick look at a variety of other country-level
variables and
their correlations with the Peace Monitor
scores. We found higher violence levels to be associated
with higher poverty levels (r = .571), higher levels of
corruption (r = .548), lower levels of income per capita
(r = -.505), higher values for social hierarchy (r = .423),
and lower levels of trade with other countries (r = -.353),
all statistically significant (p < 0.01). Of course,
many of these comparison variables are themselves highly
correlated, and we certainly make no claims about causality.
Moreover, we have not carefully considered theory, previous
work, and explanations. Indeed, we hope our brief report
here will stimulate more careful research in the area.
The measures
for poverty levels ("population below
the poverty line"), income ("GDP - per capita"),
and trade ("Imports" plus "Exports" divided
by population) were taken from the CIA World Factbook 2001
at www.cia.gov/publications/factbook/. The measure of values
for social hierarchy was taken from Geert Hofstede's Power
Distance Index (PDI), see Cultures Consequences, Thousand
Oaks, CA: Sage, 2002. The measure of levels of corruption
was taken from the Transparency International Corruption
Perception Index (CPI), see www.transparency.org for details.
Future Research. We intend to further verify the validity
of our measure of violence by comparisons across other
data sources in other countries. The relationship of our
measure to other kinds of violence - e.g., rape and suicide
- should also be determined. The causal relationships among
exogenous and other endogenous constructs should be considered.
Finally, as we will be reporting these statistics annually,
longitudinal approaches to study a variety of research
questions will be facilitated.
US States*
The
most useful (e.g., accessible and recent) measure for ranking
states by level of violence is the FBI Uniform Crime Reports
data on murders. The per 100,000 rate of murders has fallen
dramatically in the United States overall during the 1990s.
|
1990
|
1991
|
1992
|
1993
|
1994
|
1995
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001 |
|
9.4
|
9.8
|
9.3
|
9.5
|
9.0
|
8.2
|
7.4
|
6.8
|
6.3
|
5.7
|
5.5
|
5.6 |
Based
on 2001 FBI statistics, all 50 U.S. States are presented
below by rank.
RANK
|
State
|
Deaths
byViolenceper 100,000
|
| 1 |
North Dakota |
0.8 |
| 2 |
New Hampshire |
0.9 |
| 3 |
Maine |
1.1 |
| 4 |
South Dakota |
1.4 |
| 5 |
Iowa |
1.5 |
| 6 |
Montana |
1.8 |
| 7 |
Hawaii |
1.9 |
| 8 |
Oregon |
2.0 |
| 8 |
Utah |
2.0 |
| 10 |
Vermont |
2.1 |
| 11 |
Minnesota |
2.2 |
| 12 |
Connecticut |
2.3 |
| 13 |
Massachusetts |
2.7 |
| 14 |
Nebraska |
2.8 |
| 14 |
Wisconsin |
2.8 |
| 16 |
Idaho |
2.9 |
| 16 |
Kansas |
2.9 |
| 18 |
Wyoming |
3.0 |
| 18 |
Washington |
3.0 |
| 20 |
Delaware |
3.2 |
| 20 |
West Virginia |
3.2 |
| 22 |
Rhode Island |
3.8 |
| 23 |
New Jersey |
3.9 |
| 24 |
Colorado |
4.0 |
| 25 |
Kentucky |
4.5 |
| 26 |
Ohio |
4.6 |
|
RANK
|
State
|
Deaths
byViolenceper 100,000
|
| 27 |
New York |
4.7 |
| 27 |
Oklahoma |
4.7 |
| 29 |
Alaska |
5.1 |
| 29 |
Pennsylvania |
5.1 |
| 31 |
Arkansas |
5.2 |
| 32 |
Virginia |
5.3 |
| 33 |
Florida |
5.5 |
| 34 |
Missouri |
5.8 |
| 35 |
Indiana |
5.9 |
| 36 |
Texas |
6.0 |
| 37 |
North Carolina |
6.6 |
| 38 |
Michigan |
6.7 |
| 39 |
Alabama |
6.8 |
| 39 |
California |
6.8 |
| 41 |
Arizona |
7.1 |
| 41 |
Georgia |
7.1 |
| 43 |
Tennessee |
7.2 |
| 44 |
South Carolina |
7.3 |
| 45 |
Illinois |
7.5 |
| 46 |
New Mexico |
8.2 |
| 47 |
Nevada |
8.3 |
| 48 |
Mississippi |
9.2 |
| 49 |
Maryland |
9.4 |
| 50 |
Louisiana |
13.2 |
| |
Washington
DC |
46.2 |
|
*Source:
U.S. Department of Justice |
Major
US Metropolitan Areas*
The
most useful (e.g., accessible and recent) measure for ranking
cities by level of violence is the FBI Uniform Crime Reports
data on murders. The per 100,000 rate of murders has fallen
dramatically in the United States overall during the 1990s.
|
1990
|
1991
|
1992
|
1993
|
1994
|
1995
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
|
9.4
|
9.8
|
9.3
|
9.5
|
9.0
|
8.2
|
7.4
|
6.8
|
6.3
|
5.7
|
5.5
|
Below
are ranked major U.S. cities based on the most recently
available FBI statistics.
RANK
|
CITY
|
RATE
|
| 1 |
Bangor,
ME |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Bismarck,
ND |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Corvallis,
OR |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Enid,
OK |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Glens
Falls, NY |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Kenosha,
WI |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Lafayette,
IN |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Lewiston-Auburn,
ME |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Pittsfield,
MA |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Sheboygan,
WI |
0.0 |
| 1 |
St.
Joesph, MO |
0.0 |
| 1 |
Wausau,
WI |
0.0 |
| 13 |
Binghamton,
NY |
0.4 |
| 14 |
Cedar
Rapids, IA |
0.5 |
| 14 |
Provo-Orem,
UT |
0.5 |
| 16 |
Appleton-Oshkosh-Neenah,
WI |
0.6 |
| 18 |
Dover,
DE |
0.7 |
| 18 |
Fitchburg-Leominster,
MA |
0.7 |
| 20 |
Abilene,
TX |
0.8 |
| 20 |
Brockton,
MA |
0.8 |
| 20 |
Portland,
ME |
0.8 |
| 23 |
Boise,
ID |
0.9 |
| 23 |
Green
Bay, WI |
0.9 |
| 23 |
Iowa
City, IA |
0.9 |
| 23 |
San
Angelo, TX |
0.9 |
| 27 |
Olympia,
WA |
1.0 |
| 27 |
Manchester,
NH |
1.0 |
| 27 |
New
London-Norwich, CT-RI |
1.0 |
| 27 |
Newburgh,
NY-PA |
1.0 |
| 27 |
York,
PA |
1.0 |
| 32 |
Dubuque,
IA |
1.1 |
| 32 |
Lawrence,
MA-NH |
1.1 |
| 32 |
Rapid
City, SD |
1.1 |
| 35 |
Fargo-Moorehead,
ND-MN |
1.2 |
| 35 |
Lincoln,
NE |
1.2 |
| 35 |
Madison,
WI |
1.2 |
| 35 |
San
Luis Obispo-Atascadero, CA |
1.2 |
| 35 |
Sioux
Falls, SD |
1.2 |
| 35 |
Worcester,
MA-CT |
1.2 |
| 41 |
Barnstable-Yanmouth,
MA |
1.3 |
| 41 |
Johnstown,
PA |
1.3 |
| 41 |
Middlsex-Somerset-Hunterdon,
NJ |
1.3 |
| 44 |
Eau
Clare, WI |
1.4 |
| 44 |
Florence,
AL |
1.4 |
| 46 |
Altoona,
PA |
1.5 |
| 46 |
Houma,
LA |
1.5 |
| 46 |
State
College, PA |
1.5 |
| 49 |
Flagstaff,
AZ-UT |
1.6 |
| 49 |
Fort
Collins-Loveland, CO |
1.6 |
| 49 |
La
Crosse, WI-MN |
1.6 |
| 49 |
Monmouth-Ocean,
NJ |
1.6 |
| 53 |
Bloomington,
IN |
1.7 |
| 53 |
Danbury,
CT |
1.7 |
| 53 |
Mansfield,
OH |
1.7 |
| 53 |
Springfield,
MO |
1.7 |
| 53 |
Tyler,
TX |
1.7 |
| 58 |
Ann
Arbor, MI |
1.8 |
| 58 |
Portsmouth-Rochester,
NH-ME |
1.8 |
| 58 |
Redding,
CA |
1.8 |
| 58 |
St.
Cloud, MN |
1.8 |
| 62 |
Jackson,
MI |
1.9 |
| 63 |
Bergen-Passaic,
NJ |
2.0 |
| 63 |
Lowell,
MA-NH |
2.0 |
| 63 |
Orange
County, CA |
2.0 |
| 63 |
San
Jose, CA |
2.0 |
| 67 |
Boston,
MA-NH |
2.1 |
| 67 |
Brazonia,
TX |
2.1 |
| 67 |
Dutches
County, NY |
2.1 |
| 67 |
Erie,
PA |
2.1 |
| 67 |
Grand
Forks ND-MN |
2.1 |
| 67 |
Jamestown,
NY |
2.1 |
| 67 |
Portland-Vancouver,
OR-WA |
2.1 |
| 67 |
Punta
Gorda, FL |
2.1 |
| 67 |
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton,
NJ |
2.1 |
| 76 |
Eugene-Springfield,
OR |
2.2 |
| 76 |
Medford-Ashland,
OR |
2.2 |
| 76 |
New
Bedford, MA |
2.2 |
| 79 |
Greely,
CO |
2.3 |
| 79 |
Honolulu,
HI |
2.3 |
| 79 |
Toledo,
OH |
2.3 |
| 82 |
Grand
Rapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI |
2.4 |
| 82 |
Rochester,
MN |
2.4 |
| 82 |
Santa
Rosa, CA |
2.4 |
| 82 |
Sioux
City, IA-NE |
2.4 |
| 86 |
Albany-Schenectady-Troy,
NY |
2.5 |
| 86 |
Great
Falls, MT |
2.5 |
| 86 |
Jonesboro,
AR |
2.5 |
| 86 |
Santa
Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc, CA |
2.5 |
| 86 |
Waterloo-Cedar
Falls, IA |
2.5 |
| 91 |
Huntsville,
LA |
2.6 |
| 91 |
Jamesville-Beloit,
WI |
2.6 |
| 91 |
Jolin,
MO |
2.6 |
| 91 |
Lancaster,
PA |
2.6 |
| 91 |
Richland-Kenevick-Pasco,
WA |
2.6 |
| 91 |
Pocatello,
ID |
2.6 |
| 91 |
Salem,
OR |
2.6 |
| 98 |
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton,
PA |
2.8 |
| 98 |
Elkhart-Goshen,
IN |
2.8 |
| 98 |
Fort
Walton Beach, FL |
2.8 |
| 98 |
Hartford,
CT |
2.8 |
| 102 |
Merced,
CA |
2.9 |
| 102 |
Spokane,
WA |
2.9 |
| 104 |
Bellingham,
WA |
3.0 |
| 104 |
Cumberland,
MD-WV |
3.0 |
| 104 |
Hamilton-Middletown,
OH |
3.0 |
| 104 |
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett,
WA |
3.0 |
| 104 |
Ventura,
CA |
3.0 |
| 109 |
Asheville,
NC |
3.1 |
| 109 |
Lafayette,
LA |
3.1 |
| 111 |
Charlottesville,
VA |
3.2 |
| 111 |
Racine,
WI |
3.2 |
| 111 |
Santa
Cruz-Watsonville, CA |
3.2 |
| 114 |
Bremerton,
WA |
3.3 |
| 114 |
Jacksonville,
NC |
3.3 |
| 114 |
Syracuse,
NY |
3.3 |
| 114 |
Utica-Rome,
NY |
3.3 |
| 118 |
Austin-San
Marcos, TX |
3.4 |
| 118 |
Pittsburg,
PA |
3.4 |
| 118 |
Reno,
NV |
3.4 |
| 118 |
San
Diego, CA |
3.4 |
| 122 |
Minneapolis-St.
Paul, MN-WI |
3.5 |
| 122 |
Salt
Lake City-Ogden, UT |
3.5 |
| 122 |
Victoria,
TX |
3.5 |
| 122 |
Yuba
City, CA |
3.5 |
| 126 |
Colorado
Springs, CO |
3.6 |
| 126 |
El
Paso, TX |
3.6 |
| 126 |
Modesto,
CA |
3.6 |
| 126 |
Odessa-Midland,
TX |
3.6 |
| 130 |
Buffalo-Niagara
Falls, NY |
3.7 |
| 130 |
Cheyenne,
WY |
3.7 |
| 130 |
Saginaw-Bay
City-Midland, MI |
3.7 |
| 130 |
Springfield,
| | | | |