Crime has a strong impact on our everyday lives, from the security measures we use to safeguard our property and lives, to the behavioral modifications we make to minimize the probability of victimization. Crime deterrence and avoidance are major components in a host of national issues, including the debate on gun control, the war on drugs, the control of immigration, concerns about surveillance, and the tensions about police activities. The spread of crime and the workings of the criminal justice system form a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. This talk will present a progression of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime. These models are loosely based on the epidemiology models that have had a large impact on evaluating interventions for the spread of diseases. Simon will use this framework and some underlying empirical data to begin a discussion of the impact of age, sex and race on the spread of crime and to suggest comparisons of interventions.
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